Championship · Matchday 16
Southampton vs Derby: prediction, analysis and match stats
St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
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See matches you can analyse →Southampton vs Derby prediction: who is the favourite?
According to the Copafever model, Southampton are favourites at 63% (draw 21%, Derby 16%). Most likely score: 2-1.
- 63 %Southampton
- 21 %Draw
- 16 %Derby
Computed on 31 October 2026 at 01:21 · 60% right on 50 checked matches
Southampton vs Derby: key facts
- Copafever model favourite: Southampton (63%), most likely score 2-1.
- Better form: Southampton (10 points from 5 matches, against 3).
- Southampton are 6th and Derby 23rd in the Championship table.
- Over the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Southampton, 3 draws and 0 wins for Derby.
When and where is Southampton vs Derby?
Southampton host Derby on Saturday, 21 November 2026 at 13:30 (Paris time), at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, Matchday 16 of the Championship.
What form are both teams in?
Southampton took 10 points from their last 5 matches: W D W W L (2.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match).
Derby took 3 points from their last 5 matches: D L L D D (0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match).
Southampton are 6th and Derby 23rd in the Championship table.
What does the head-to-head say?
Over the last 5 meetings: 2 wins for Southampton, 3 draws and 0 wins for Derby.
- 11/04/2026 · Southampton 2-1 Derby
- 04/10/2025 · Derby 1-1 Southampton
- 16/01/2019 · Southampton 4-4 (3-5 tab) Derby
- 05/01/2019 · Derby 2-2 Southampton
- 18/02/2012 · Southampton 4-0 Derby
How many goals to expect?
At home this season, Southampton score 2.7 goals and concede 0.7 per match. Away, Derby score 1.0 goal and concede 1.8 per match.
What do the season stats say?
Southampton at home this season: 6 matches, 2 clean sheets, 1 without scoring. Most used system: 4-2-3-1.
Derby away this season: 6 matches, 1 clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Most used system: 4-2-3-1.
How does Copafever compute this prediction?
The Copafever model computes the probability of all 81 possible scores of Southampton vs Derby (0-0 to 8-8) with a Poisson model fed by the real match data: form, home and away results, the table, head-to-head, goals and absentees. For the match result it is combined with the market consensus (margin removed). No odds are shown and Copafever links to no betting site. The full method