Championship · Matchday 17
Wolves vs Derby: prediction, analysis and match stats
Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton
The analysis opens 7 days before kick-off
This match is in 22 days. Come back a few days before, or look at a closer match.
See matches you can analyse →Wolves vs Derby prediction: who is the favourite?
According to the Copafever model, Wolves are favourites at 60% (draw 22%, Derby 18%). Most likely score: 2-1.
- 60 %Wolves
- 22 %Draw
- 18 %Derby
Computed on 3 November 2026 at 01:56 · 63% right on 152 checked matches
Wolves vs Derby: key facts
- Copafever model favourite: Wolves (60%), most likely score 2-1.
- Better form: Wolves (10 points from 5 matches, against 2).
- Wolves are 3rd and Derby 23rd in the Championship table.
- Over the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Wolves, 0 draws and 2 wins for Derby.
When and where is Wolves vs Derby?
Wolves host Derby on Tuesday, 24 November 2026 at 21:00 (Paris time), at Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, Matchday 17 of the Championship.
What form are both teams in?
Wolves took 10 points from their last 5 matches: W W D W L (1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match).
Derby took 2 points from their last 5 matches: L D L L D (0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match).
Wolves are 3rd and Derby 23rd in the Championship table.
What does the head-to-head say?
Over the last 5 meetings: 3 wins for Wolves, 0 draws and 2 wins for Derby.
- 11/04/2018 · Wolves 2-0 Derby
- 12/08/2017 · Derby 0-2 Wolves
- 29/04/2017 · Derby 3-1 Wolves
- 05/11/2016 · Wolves 2-3 Derby
- 27/02/2016 · Wolves 2-1 Derby
How many goals to expect?
At home this season, Wolves score 1.9 goals and concede 1.0 per match. Away, Derby score 1.0 goal and concede 2.1 per match.
What do the season stats say?
Wolves at home this season: 7 matches, 3 clean sheets, 0 without scoring. Most used system: 4-2-3-1.
Derby away this season: 7 matches, 1 clean sheet, 1 without scoring. Most used system: 4-2-3-1.
How does Copafever compute this prediction?
The Copafever model computes the probability of all 81 possible scores of Wolves vs Derby (0-0 to 8-8) with a Poisson model fed by the real match data: form, home and away results, the table, head-to-head, goals and absentees. For the match result it is combined with the market consensus (margin removed). No odds are shown and Copafever links to no betting site. The full method
In the Championship, the Copafever model called the right outcome in 83% of the 12 matches already checked (random would be about 33%).